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Tories wet, dry, and historic: Lady T. celebrates 80, while today's pols scramble to lead the party

London MARGARET THATCHER's 80thbirthday party on the 13th of October was the last great social occasion of Thatcherism. Attended by the Queen and Prince Philip, Prime Minister Tony Blair and his wife Cherie, many members of the birthday girl's former cabinets, and almost all the luminaries of what in the 1980s was called "The Great Moving Right Show," it was both a glorious party and probably Lady Thatcher's final appearance as the star of a glamorous London event. (Well, as Lady T. herself might say - -she being the possessor of a flinty sense of humor - -not quite the last occasion.)

The Queen's presence was significant. Her journey to Downing Street as the guest of Winston Churchill on his last night as prime minister almost exactly 50 years ago was one of few precedents. (And Churchill, unlike Lady Thatcher, was still prime minister when he played host.) Also, the media like to hint that Her Majesty never much liked Thatcherism or its inventor. In addition to doubting this on the general grounds that the Queen is scrupulously careful never to reveal her political preferences (moderate Tory I would guess), I notice that HM has shown Lady Thatcher signal favors since she left office. In particular, she invited her to join the Order of Merit, which is the single greatest distinction the Queen can bestow and reflects, if not her personal regard, then her acknowledgment of the former prime minister's achievements.

From the standpoint of Buck House, of course, prime ministers, however distinguished (or not), come and go. The caravan has now moved on. This was a gracious public farewell. Tony Blair's reflections were presumably more complicated. It was generous of him to be present. Most Labour supporters still dislike Lady Thatcher, and Blair's attendance would only lend credence to their belief that he is Thatcher's bastard heir and a secret Tory. (Yes and No, if you care to know the answer.) But Blair is a social animal who, like Bill Clinton, thinks he can win anyone around. He likes a good party. And, as he has acknowledged, he admires many of the Lady's achievements.

Yet he must also have felt the cold hand of - -no, not death, but retirement - -on his collar. No prime minister can ever fully adjust to losing office. They instinctively wish to order action when confronted by some problem. They are haunted by what they failed to do. They replay the big decisions in their minds. Having announced in advance that he will retire before the next election, Blair is now conscious that That Day is racing towards him. When he swapped small talk with Lady T., he must have felt that he would soon be in her shoes - -though with fewer achievements to his credit and, in all likelihood, many more years of post-prime-ministerial life to reflect on that fact. Or as they say in showbiz: Sic transit Gloria Swanson.

After Blair and the Queen left (in that order, contrary to Emily Post), the party went on in high spirits. Lord Carrington - -Mrs. Thatcher's foreign secretary who resigned honorably because he failed to prevent the Argentine takeover of the Falklands - -proposed a witty toast: "Travels with Margaret as PM were a nightmare - -though nightmare is the wrong word since one never got any sleep." Disdaining her doctors' advice not to make public speeches, Lady Thatcher responded in kind. And then old enemies swapped stories of cabinet battles long ago; economists debated the virtues of monetarism one more time; MPs, current and retired, contrasted the heroine of those days with the pygmies of today ...

Oh yes, that reminds me. When the last piece of sushi had been eaten, and the last flute of champagne drained; when the last guest had departed, and the amber glow of nostalgia finally dissipated, we walked out into the London streets to find that a Tory leadership election was going on. You could tell so from the tabloid headlines - to be precise, the News of the World headline a few days later that read, "Top Tory, Coke and the Hooker."

First, however, the story so far.

In the Tory system for choosing leaders, successive elections confined to the 198 Tory members of Parliament whittle down the contenders to two finalists. These then tour the country for a month, debating before the Tory volunteer faithful who choose the new leader in a nationwide election.

The first ballot on Tuesday, October 18, produced a surprise result - -Ken Clarke, the candidate of the old Tory "wet" establishment and a former finance minister, came in fourth and was eliminated. Clarke was far and away the most experienced of the candidates and also the most popular with the public - -a genial, jazz-loving, beer-drinking, cigar-smoking, old-style pol who didn't give a damn. But the scale of his defeat - -he got only 38 votes - -suggests that the Tory party is now Thatcherite on the economy and Europe.

That leaves three candidates who, in ascending order according to the bookies, are:

1. Liam Fox, a tough, direct, and eloquent medical doctor who is probably the most pro-American British politician and who, at the Tory conference, was almost the only speaker to "mention the war" - -the Iraq war, that is. He is also an unashamed social conservative in a largely liberal party. With 42 votes in the first round, he is technically the number-two right-winger in the race. But he can label his performance "better than expected" and hope to win votes on the basis of this "Medium Mo."

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